Water FractalTier 2
at Store Championship
decks
1
(3.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
1-4-1
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.2%
avg ELO -4.7 per match
expected value
44.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1223
· median 1223
· range 1223–1223
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1103
Q1 1230
Q3 1406
1574
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 13.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 13.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +1.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.2 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 3.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -3.1 |
| Water Allies | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
